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2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Inflection Point

2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Inflection Point
Crosspost: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.msg47569859#msg47569859
History
—08-JAN-2018: Elliott Wave, https://redd.it/7ptsg3
—12-JAN-2018: Crypto Black Monday, https://redd.it/7pxg0d
—24-JAN-2018: Dotcom vs Crypto, https://redd.it/7skzff
—21-FEB-2018: Bear Market Resumes, https://redd.it/7z8u6n
—28-FEB-2018: Halfway Through, https://redd.it/7umjf9
—13-MAR-2018: Fare Thee Well Ten Thousand, #10kNeverAgain: https://redd.it/842ssd
—19-MAR-2018: Equinox, https://redd.it/85m5tr
—03-APR-2018: April Fools’ Rally, https://redd.it/89jqye
—19-APR-2018: 420 High, https://redd.it/8dbz4f
—25-APR-2018: Symmetrical Triangle, https://redd.it/8ev2ki
—06-MAY-2018: Ten Thousand Tease, https://redd.it/8hdhjn
—29-MAY-2018: Triangle Phinance, https://redd.it/8mwx6z
—10-JUN-2018: Triangle Phinance II, https://redd.it/8q5p68
—23-JUL-2018: Redux, https://redd.it/913xx6
—02-SEP-2018: #ShortSeptember, https://redd.it/9c96vk
—04-NOV-2018: Inflection Point, https://redd.it/9u1y3z
TLDR: https://i.imgur.com/EGmziB1.png
The Bitcoin and cryptocurrency bear market of 2018 has reached a point of inflection, where alternative scenarios and projections can now be explored using Elliott Wave theory.
From the 17-DEC-2017 high to the 06-FEB-2018 low, the Bitcoin market endured a 70% price collapse from the all-time high of $19,891 to a low of $6,000 in just 51 days (BITFINEX). In Elliott Wave parlance, this first phase crash is a simple but sharp three wave a-b-c zigzag pattern.
From the 06-FEB-2018 low, the Bitcoin market then wandered sideways for 168 days until 24-JUL-2018, creating a floor of support at $6,000 whilst making successively lower highs. The psychological $6,000 price has been guarded since it marks support of the psychological USD$100 billion Bitcoin marketcap. In Elliott Wave parlance, this second phase of market development is a triangle pattern consisting of five a-b-c-d-e waves. The internal structure of the waves within the triangle are related to each other in terms of length as the following Fibonacci ratios:
wave-c = wave-a * 0.618 wave-d = wave-b * 0.786 wave-e = wave-c * 0.786 
https://i.imgur.com/Bm4Nx7a.png
The triangle phase of the Bitcoin market completed at the 24-JUL-2018 high. Since then, the third phase of market has been underway with an expectation of creating new lows for 2018 at sub $6,000 prices. Initial approx targets have been projected as follows (BITSTAMP):
@5920: Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high. @5220: Fibonacci 0.786% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high. @4327: Fibonacci 0.100% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high. @4200: Fibonacci 78.6% decline of entire Bitcoin market. 
Any of the aforementioned approx price levels based on Fibonacci projections are potential targets of where the 2018 bear market may conclude.
Should price retrace below the Fibonacci 78.6% of the entire Bitcoin market, i.e. below the psychological $4,000 level; it may suggest the bear market extends into 2019 with an expectation of a 90%-95% decline of the entire Bitcoin market to approx $1,000 by 2020. Such a scenario would be consistent with the collapse of other historical asset mania bubble bursts, which typically elapse 2 years on average: thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes
However, the Bitcoin market has reached an inflection point. The third phase of the bear market appears to have stagnated in price and time. Since 09-SEP-2018, price has traded in a narrow 10% range at an average price of $6,400 for almost 60 days thus far. Volatility is now at a 22-month low and technicals such as moving averages are flat-lining across daily timeframes. This behaviour has been quite unexpected. Since completion of the consolidating triangle phase of the market, volume and volatility was expected to breakout. Speculators and traders have left the stabilised cryptocurrency marketplace in favour of the more volatile global equity bear markets.
An alternative scenario can now be considered: Since completion of the triangle at the 24-JUL-2018 high, the concluding phase of the bear market may have declined and truncated at the 11-OCT-2018 low. If so, a cyclical (i.e. short-term) bull market may be commencing within an overall secular (i.e. long-term) bear market. Such a bull market would be termed as a wave-X as part of a complex ongoing long-term bear market structure.
https://i.imgur.com/vePkBiL.png
In some schools of Elliott Wave thought, the wave-X bull market may unfold in five 1-2-3-4-5 impulsive waves; or, as three a-b-c corrective waves considered in other schools of thought. Either way, the size of a wave-X is challenging to predict. Typically, it may retrace either a Fibonacci 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% of the entire 2018 bear market; that is approx $11,081 or $12,720 or $14,360 or $16,705 respectively (BITSTAMP). In some cases, a wave-X may extend to, and even exceed prior all-time highs, like typically seen in commodity and forex markets. The wave-X cyclical bull market could be a swift parabolic move elapsing within 12 months during the course of 2019, and thus the overall secular bear market may still resume to unfold to a low in late 2020.
In summary, the parameters of the inflection point can be currently defined as follows, using BITSTAMP prices…
Bear Market Inflection Points
—A break below the 11-OCT-2018 low of $6,055 would be the first indication to suggest the bear market is still underway.
—A break below the 14-AUG-2018 low of $5,880 would confirm the ongoing bear market.
—A break below $4,000 may suggest an extended bear market leading to a 90%-95% collapse of the entire Bitcoin market by 2020.
Bull Market Inflection Points
—A break above the 15-OCT-2018 high of $6,756 would be the first indication to suggest a bull market may be commencing.
—A break above the 04-SEP-2018 high of $7,412 would likely confirm a bull market is underway.
Notes
—Bitcoin CBOE XBT futures expiries: 14-NOV-2018, 19-DEC-2018
—Bitcoin CME futures last trade dates: 30-NOV-2018, 28-DEC-2018
—Bitcoin ICE Bakkt daily futures tentative launch: 12-DEC-2018
—S&P500: global stockmarket indices appear to have topped, and a bear market is underway. Expectation is a rally into the end of year 2018 towards $2,800+ in the S&P500 index, followed by a decline to approx $2,400 by Easter 2019 to end the brief equity bear market.
—Gold: rally underway, expectation to conclude at approx $1,260, and then bear market resumes to sub $1,000 by 2020.
—US Dollar: expecting uptrend to be bounded by approx 98, and then bear market resumes.
Elliott Wave models are speculative and indicative of price and structure, not time; i.e. the projections may occur sooner or later than anticipated.
—BTC (Weekly): https://i.imgur.com/B0ftUHf.png
—BTC (Daily): https://i.imgur.com/ljfMvlt.png
—BTC (4-hr): https://i.imgur.com/Ip1QQTe.png
submitted by 12345abcde00001 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

The State of Trading (in the Bitcoin Markets)

I wanted to make a post of my interpretations of current state of sentiment and trading in the bitcoin markets and see if others share similar views:
1) Since mid-January (9months) we have been rangebound/trendless/sideways essentially between $200-300 with fakeouts to the upside and downsides. There certainly has been a general loss of interest by traders as many have turned to trading other markets -- here is a TradingView Chat activity of Bitcoin VS Forex VS Stocks and indexes: http://imgur.com/8LyeHjt
2) Volume across exchanges doesn't seem to be waning that much which would be indicative of what we would see in the despair phase of a bear winter -- I am not suggesting this as any inflection point or calling an end anytime soon™. We are also seeing the rise of Skynet again as it appears Bitstamp has bought the ever effective Star OKCoin volume washing bot: http://imgur.com/q6EAkle -- we also see the return of the random 10k BTC candles appearing again on OKC spot which used happen almost daily.
3) The traders/degenerate gamblers are/were the last people still interested in bitcoin in such a committed way IMO -- yes there are those 21inc companies and blah blah but really I don't know anyone else who is still waking up to bitcoin price alarms or forgoing activities with real life friends when price action calls. And now we are even seeing some of this interest wane as I believe the ramping up volume washing bot activity is the Casino trying to keep the lights flashing and the sounds blasting so that we keep wanting to play the game. Take a look at the volume on Stamp when it introduced that MM bot: http://imgur.com/MZdxIdp
submitted by BTCVIX to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

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Anfänger entdeckt Volumen Trading - Dann geschah das Unfassbare (Forex Daytrading Live)

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