Crude Oil Forecast: JMMC, Lockdowns, Vaccine News in Focus

Reduce Output And Price, Now Is The End Of OPEC?

Reduce Output And Price, Now Is The End Of OPEC?

Photo: Internet
Since the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020, the global economy has entered a recession, with gold soaring, stock markets tumbling, and oil prices plummeting.
Saudi Arabia cut pricing for oil sales to Asia and the U.S. for October shipments, and the reduction exceeded last month.
Global daily oil consumption (total liquid volume) broke the "100 million barrels" mark for the first time in 2019, reaching 10.96 million barrels. It means the global daily consumption is more than 100 million barrels, and the annual consumption is more than 5 billion tons.
Since the outbreak of COVID-19, fuel demand has decreased significantly, while global oil supply has continued to increase.
Global oil consumption has decreased by nearly a quarter due to COVID-19. The global daily oil consumption level in the second quarter of this year was less than 77 million barrels, which is almost 20 years ago.
20th April saw WTI oil prices plunge from $17.85 to -$37.63, more than a 300% drop, the largest one day drop for U.S. crude in history.
The oil prices up and down in history, and various factors impact the oil prices. One of the most critical factors is OPEC.
The Birth of OPEC
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a permanent, intergovernmental Organization created at the Baghdad Conference on September 10–14, 1960, by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela.
Before the OPEC, the Seven Sisters (E Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, Gulf Oil, Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Socony, Standard Oil Company of New York, and Texaco) controlled the world's oil markets.
In the 1950s, coal was the most critical fuel globally, but oil consumption increased rapidly, and demand continued to grow. In 1959, the United States' Seven Sisters lowered the price of oil produced in Venezuela and the Middle East by 10% to reduce the United States' price.
To counter the U.S. oil monopoly, OPEC was born.
OPEC's 13 members control approximately 30% of global oil supplies and 79.4% of proven reserves. OPEC member nations produce about 42% of the world's crude oil, and OPEC's oil exports account for roughly 60% of the total petroleum traded worldwide.

Photo: OPEC
Impact of OPEC on Oil Prices
Within the OPEC group, Saudi Arabia is the largest crude oil producer in the world and remains the most dominant member of OPEC, with each instance of a cut in oil production by them, resulting in a sharp rise in oil prices, and vice versa.
Additionally, the 'kingdom of Saud' is also the leading exporter of crude oil globally. Since 2000, all historical instances since the 1973 Arab oil embargo indicate that Saudi Arabia has maintained its upper hand in the oil market. It calls the shots in determining crude oil prices by controlling supply.
All major oil price fluctuations in recent history can be clearly attributed to production levels from Saudi Arabia, along with other OPEC nations.
Is it now the end of OPEC?
The success of shale oil and the plunge in oil prices in 2014 are signs that OPEC has declined.
Since 2014, U.S. shale oil has created a boom in domestic crude oil production. Shale oil comprises more than a third of the onshore production of crude oil in the lower 48 states. It drove U.S. oil output from 8.8 million barrels per day in 2014 to a record 12.2 million barrels a day in 2019.
As a result, the United States became the world's largest crude-oil producer.

Photo: EIA

Photo: EIA
Today the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Russia rank among the top three in world oil production.

Photo: EIA

Photo: EIA

In November 2014, despite the appeals of other OPEC members to cut production, Saudi Arabia suddenly increased production sharply, trying to defeat U.S. shale oil companies through the competitive increase in OPEC member states. But American shale oil survived strongly by borrowing, and it became more efficient, and production costs were greatly reduced.
During this time, Saudi Arabia's economy is declining rapidly. Saudi Arabia had the highest government deficit in history-98 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 15% of GDP in 2015.
In 2016, Saudi Arabia led OPEC and Russia to reach an OPEC+ production reduction agreement. Since then, oil prices have steadily rebounded. At the same time, Saudi Arabia has begun to consider taking advantage of high oil prices to list Saudi Aramco to ease domestic financial difficulties.
During this period, OPEC +'s reduction in production has rescued U.S. shale oil again. The production capacity of shale oil has increased sharply by 4 million barrels per day, surpassing Saudi Arabia, and Russia.
So far, the OPEC structure and cohesion continues to divide and elude.
On 8th March 2020, Saudi Arabia initiated a price war with Russia, facilitating a 65% quarterly fall in the price of oil. The price war was triggered by a break-up in dialogue between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia over proposed oil-production cuts in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. Russia walked out of the agreement, leading to the fall of the OPEC+ alliance.
While past oil shocks have been driven by either supply or demand, the price collapse of 2020 is highly unusual in oil market history: It results from a massive demand shock and a huge supply overhang at the same time.


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A Short Story that Describes Imaginary Events and People of Worldwide Calamities and the Aftermath (the 2nd Edition)

The following story, all names, characters, and incidents portrayed in this post are fictitious. No identification with actual persons (living or deceased), places, buildings, and products is intended or should be inferred.
However, the LINKS to real-life events and inspiring sources are placed here and there throughout the story.
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Truth is the Only Light
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INTRO
☞ [As of 2019] there are plenty of reasons to think the Chinese system will implode spectacularly without Japanese feeling the need to do a thing. — Peter Zaihan, Disunited Nations (Mar 03, 2020)
It's apparent that two nations have been engaged in a high-stakes military & economy arms race. The current US admin has been hitting China with waves of tariffs, but that was merely a small part of what's actually going on. [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8]
On Oct 11, 2019, when they reached a tentative agreement for the first phase of a trade deal, the fact that China made the concession actually made my jaw drop. From where I sit, it was a worrisome scene. Aren't people saying, when challenging situations are bottled up, they will just grow and mutate into another terrible complications?
Admittedly I was not certain how they are going to adhere to the agreement: It left most of the US tariffs (on China's exports) in place, and at the same time, came with an additional USD $200 Billion burden for China over the next two years. This agreement might seem a bit insignificant, but now China would need to purchase almost twice the size of the US products & services they did before the trade war began.
With their current economic climate? I murmured, "No way."
While watching Trump brag and boast around with said agreement, I expected China would soon come out and fling some improvised excuses in order to delay the document-signing process. It wouldn't be their first time. More importantly, even if China does so, there wouldn't be many (real) counterattack options left for the Trump admin during this year, the US presidential election year.
Then, on Jan 16, 2020, the world’s two largest economies actually signed a partial trade agreement aimed at putting the brakes on an 18-month trade war. China would almost surely not sit down but come back to bite, I thought.
Enter the worldwide chaos following so called the COVID-19 outbreak.
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BACKGROUND
☞ Globalists have been heavily investing in China's economy and its components overseas.
• Here are a couple of well known names: the Great Old One; George Soros; Koos Bekker; and Bill Gates.
• For the sake of convenience, from here on, let's call these globalists, who are foreign investors in China's top tier state-owned/sponsored/controlled enterprises, Team-Z.
• Team-Z has adopted big time lackeys like Henry Kissinger or small time ones like Larry Summers, Stephen Hadley, or Bill Browder as matchmakers to court Team-Z for China's top tier enterprises. When Israel's highest echelons chimed in, it has been through Israeli IT companies and the BRI projects.
• Naturally, multinational investment banks have also been employed; such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), UBS Group AG (formerly Union Bank of Switzerland), Blackstone Group, Canaccord Genuity, BlackRock, Hermitage, or Mirae Asset.
☞ Note: The Great Old One didn't use any matchmakers, something peasants would need. Because the Great Old One's power level is over 9000.
• China's Shanghai clique used to keep the nation's state-sponsored enterprises under their firm grip: Enterprises such as Alibaba Group, Tencent, Baidu, Wanda Group, HNA Group, Anbang Group, Evergrande Group, CEFC Energy and Huawei, all of which Team-Z has massively invested in.
Here is how Shanghai clique and Team-Z, esp. Bill Gates, started to get together: [LINK]
• However, in the name of anti-corruption campaign, Xi Jinping & his Princelings have been taking those businesses away from Shanghai clique's hand, and transforming those state-sponsored private enterprises into the state-owned enterprises, declaring the 國進民退 movement.
• Slaying Shanghai clique's control = [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]
• 國進民退 + Slaying Shanghai clique's control = [A] [B] [C]
• Xi's reign didn't arrive today without challenges though: the BRI projects' poor outcome has frustrated Israel's great expectations. And since the US-China trade war has started, the problems of China's economic systems started to surface, not to mention China's economy has long been decaying.
• Coupled with the US-China trade war, the current US admin has been trying to block Huawei from accessing the international financial systems that the US can influence, as well as the US banking systems. This is a good time to remind you again that Bill Gates has had a very close-knit relationship with Huawei.
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TRADE WAR & INTERNET-BASED COMPANIES
☞ It's the trade war, but why were internet-based companies such as Tencent and Baidu suffering losses?
Answer: The state-sponsored companies like Tencent, Baidu, or Huawei have heavily invested in international trade and commodity markets, which are easily influenced by aspects that IMF interest rates, the US sanctions, or trade war can create.
Example: Let's say, Tencent invests in a Tehran-based ride-hailing company. Then, through said ride-hailing company, Tencent invests in Iran's petroleum industry. Now, China's most valuable IT company is in international petrochemical trade. The business is going to make great strides until the US imposes trade embargoes oand economic sanctions against Iran.
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TL;DR
China's economy going down = Team-Z losing an astronomical amount of money.
★ Wednesday, Sep 26, 2018 ★
"Gentlemen, you guys might want to do something before it's too bloody late, no? His speech last night was .... (sniggers) Mr. Gates, now is as good a time as any. Mr. Soros, hm, don't look at me like that."
".... But,"
"Yes, Mr. Soros, your HNA is going down, too. .... Ah, Schwarzman xiansheng, we're very sorry to learn about Blackstone's Iran & SinopecChina situation. So, we're guessing, you'd be happy to join Mr. Gates's operation, yes? Of course, We already contacted Kissinger xiansheng. .... Okay then, Gentlemen?"
• Now you can take a guess why George Soros has recently been sending out confusing messages regarding Xi Jinping.
• Wait, how about Wuhan Institute of Virology? Doesn't this story concern the COVID-19 outbreak? Is the Wuhan Institute also associated with Shanghai clique? Yes, indeed. Here's How Wuhan Institute of Virology and Shanghai Clique are related: [LINK]
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EIGHT OBJECTIVES
☞ Calling for the tide to be turned, Team-Z and Shanghai clique started to devise the plan. The objectives are:
By shutting down international trade, crashing world economy, and exploiting its aftermath, the plan should produce an outcome letting Team-Z earn back their loss from the trade war & the US sanctions, and collect additional profits from China's BRI projects & stock markets worldwide, including the US stock markets.
Don't forget this: This point number also concerns the developing nations on the BRI with the large deposits of natural resources that Team-Z has invested in through China. If everything comes together nicely, Team-Z will pick up trillions of dollars from those nations alone as if they are light as a feather. Ironically this will reinforce the BRI project governance and mitigate fraud & corruption risks inherent to the international development projects.
By utilizing the aftermath in the US, a new US administration consisted of pro-Beijing personnels should be fostered at the 2020 election. In a worst-case scenario, the aftermath should be abused enough to make Robert Lighthizer to leave the admin. Mr. Mnuchin could stay.
Sometime next year, the phase one trade deal must be reassessed with the new US admin. The reassessment should help China take the upper-hand at the second phase trade talk.
The pandemic crisis should yield a situation which allows China to delay the payments for its state-firm offshore debts. With the point number , this will give China a breathing room to manage its steadily-fallen forex reserves.
Since their current turf (in China) is education industry & medical science industry, Shanghai clique will have no issue with earning hefty profits by managing China's export of medical equipments & health care products which can be supplied worldwide mainly by China. People in the west will bent the knees for the clique's support.
☞ Regarding Jiang Zemin's son and medical science industry in China [LINK]
The outcome should weaken Xi & his Princelings' political power considerably in favour of Shanghai clique & Team-Z. This will let Jiang's Shanghai clique (A) reclaim some of political status & business interest controls they have lost to Xi & his Princelings.
• And once this point number , with the point number , is realized, it would be much easier for the clique to (B) recover their huge assets hidden overseas that the current US admin or Xi & his Princelings have frozen.
Combining good old bribery with sex, the outcome should support China to re-secure control over the US governors. Once the plan is executed successfully, those governors would desperately need solutions to local economic problems and unemployment.
Lastly, implementing an e-ID system in the US similar to Beijing's Alipay and WeChat could be the cherry on top of the operation's entire outcomes. Who's supporting such a system worldwide? None other than Microsoft and Rockefeller Foundation. ಠ_ಠ
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OLD COMRADE BECOMES A NEW RECRUIT
☞ They were afraid more talents were needed. The main target was the world’s largest economy with the most powerful military capability, after all.
They ended up asking Mr. Fridman to see Lord Putin about that. The old Vova was going through a lot nowadays, people said. It could be because his nation's energy business to Europe seems to be hitting wall after wall. He is said to have enough on his plate with no end in sight, so maybe he'll join.
★ Monday, Jan 15, 2018 ★
"(pours a drink for himself) I know, but. ... What would happen if Bashar falls? How long you think you can keep it up? .... Erdogan is many things (sniggers) but he's never gentle. (sips his drink slowly) When Benji's EastMed Pipeline starts to actively compete, then what? They got the China money now. .... Vagit and his buddies will be very unhappy. You know that. Not great, Vova."
"...."
"Ah, you mean what are we going to do? Hm? Hm. I'll tell you what we're going to do. This time, we're going to bankrupt the US shale gas sector. Then, of course, we can maybe convince Benji to take their time with the pipeline. Perhaps for good. (sips his drink slowly) Don't worry, Vova, It'll work. You worry too much. We'll come out the other side stronger."
"So, how long until they set it off?
"Hahaa, yes. They'll soon put all things in place. While marching in place, they'll play the tune a couple of months before the next sochelnik."
"Nearly 20 months to brace things here, then?"
"(nod slowly in happiness) Hm. Оторви́сь там, оттопы́рься, Vova"
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USEFUL IDIOTS
☞ When the directive came, these idiots answered claiming they would be gladly "on it." All in the name of rejuvenating China's economy without grasping the real objective prevailing throughout the entire operation. Thing is, they would never realize what they are to Team-Z & their Asian overlord until it’s too late.
Who are they? It's A and B, not A or B: (A) the American corporations that are too big to fail and have suffered a considerable loss because of the US-China trade war. Among those corporations, (B) the ones that have been structured with massive interest-profit relationships in/with China.
"We need China in order for the US as a nation to continue being prosper," they've been shouting. No surprise there, because they've enjoyed the strides of extraordinary profits over the years while the US middle class has continued to shrink.
But, in 2019 when China's stock markets nosedived for the first time since 2015 and China's authorities in financial stability & resiliency fumbled their response; it wiped that smile off their face. Still, they'll keep behaving not to offend their Asian overlord, nonetheless.
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PERFECT PLAN
☞ Many crucial components had to come into play all at once in order to cause World War I. If one of the components were missing or different, it is unlikely that the World War I as we know of could be produced.
The US in 2019: Overbought bubbles + Over borrowed corporations
The US in 2020: It's an Election Year.
Russia has been dumping US Treasuries for the past few years.
Russia has been hoarding golds as if they were recreating Inca Empire.
China in 2019: Immense & long term financial troubles has started to surface.
China in 2020: The phase-one deal has been signed; leaving most of tariffs on China intact and adding another $200 Billion burden for China.
Team-Z sets up a situation in the US where some event(s) would freeze the US supply chains & demand for the next three to ten months.
• Just like the 9/11, the event will be initiated at the clique's own region. However, unlike in China, the US will report multiple epicentres simultaneously.
• And the CDC and the US medical task force will carry on with a number of sabotage acts, to secure enough time for the infected yet untested in those US epicentres to spread plenty. [1] [2] [3]
• Here's a feasible timeline of the operation.
Then, the BOOM: Team-Z (a) manipulates the markets to make sure MM will have liquidity concerns (b) when they need it most. The (c) bottomed out oil price will be an enforcement, which will also wreck the US energy sector as a kicker. The (d) WHO will also join as a disinformation campaign office.
• Then a couple of big name investment managers will lead a movement that (will try to) bring back foreign money back to China. [1] [2]
• Meanwhile, in US, the disinformation campaign will continue to be pushed until the second wave of attack arrives.
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MEASURABLE SHORT-TERM OUTCOME
☞ We're now going through World War III. The global structure laid down by World War II had been shaken by globalization and the rise of China. This pandemic event will shock the structure further. Human history will be divided into Before 2021 and After 2021.
① Outcome pt. 1: Immediate Aftermath [pt.1] [pt.2]
② Outcome pt. 2: The US economy goes deep dive along with world economy, and the only thing Team-Z has to do is to exploit the aftermath which has been thoroughly calculated and eagerly anticipated. — Favoured assessment: There won't be a V curve ever, unless drastic measures taken within the timeframe of four months. Unprecedented market crash, the rapid unemployment acceleration because of the supply-chain shut down, and the near-death security which in turn forces consumer confidence to plummet. We're looking at a super long L shape curve unless the US prepares fast for the second wave of their asymmetric warfare.
③ Outcome pt. 3: Arguably the most important outcome. — Because of the unprecedented shutdown of international trade, the nations heavily rely on exporting natural resources will face the extreme financial threats. What if some of those are emerging markets AND massively in debt to China? What do you think China would do to said nations while the aftermath is hitting the globe hard? [PDF] Something comparable to Latin American Debt Crisis will happen.
④ Outcome pt. 4: Not that significant compared to the others but still notable outcome. — The world will need Shanghai clique's help to get medical products and equipments.
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WHAT'S NEXT?
☞ Several analysts have discussed off the record that next it'd be a proxy warfare not using armed conflicts but with spreading a galaxy of counterfeit-currency across every possible channels.
Coincidently, on Dec 13, 2017, Business Insider reported in an article "A $100 counterfeit 'supernote' found in South Korea could have been made in North Korea" that:
"It was the first of a new kind of supernote ever found in the world," Lee Ho-Joong, head of KEB Hana Bank's anti-counterfeit centre told Agence France-Presse.
Reporting the same news, The Telegraph published an article on Dec 11, 2017:
"It seems that whoever printed these supernotes has the facilities and high level of technology matching that of a government", said Lee Ho-jung, a bank spokesman from KEB Hana Bank in South Korea. "They are made with special ink that changes colour depending on the angle, patterned paper and Intaglio printing that gives texture to the surface of a note".
ಠ_ಠ
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Tale of How Shanghai clique and Globalists Got Together
Wuhan Institute of Virology, Wuhan City, & Shanghai Clique
Feasible Timeline of the COVID-19 Operation
Immediate Aftermath — pt.1.b
Immediate Aftermath — pt.2.a
Remdesivir, Gilead Sciences, Its Shareholders, & Silly Concern
Cases Displaying the Recent Climate of Chinese Economy
Compliance Report by the US State Department on China regarding Biological Weapons Convention — Click "2019 August Unclassified Compliance Report" and see p45.
Jiang Zemin's son & Medical Science Industry in China
What is Guanxi (關係)?
Israeli IT Companies & China
Opinion article "Cancel All Debt to China"
Fun Trivia about Bush Family and China
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submitted by vanillabluesea to conspiracy [link] [comments]

India should take this opportunity to hedge it's oil supply

The current oil price war is a once in a generation event. In terms of the COVID caused demand shock and the Saudi-Russian supply shock, it's a once in a lifetime event.

The time to hedge is now. To guarantee low oil prices for India for the coming year (s) and heal our current account deficit.

What is hedging?
A 'hedge' is a financial contract whereby you agree to purchase oil at a pre-determined price. Hedges are used to reduce price risk and they are a popular strategy used by some large oil users (particularly airlines) to ensure that fuel price volatility doesn't affect their plans.
Typically, under the contract, a user will offer to purchase oil at a fixed price at a later date. (say for eg. Jan 2021). The supplier will purchase oil today and will store it for delivery at that later date.

If oil prices are so low, why should we hedge?
Neither Saudi or Russia can afford to engage in this oil price war for too long. Their economies and forex reserves are too intertwined to be able to afford to fight this war for too long. They are going to cave sooner or later.
Furthermore, the main target of the oil price war is the US Shale oil Industry. This industry is a 400 pound gorilla in the oil world which has transformed energy markets and made US a net oil exporter, a feat unimaginable a few years ago. Essentially, clever American entrepreneurs learnt to extract oil from shale rock using advanced technology and caused the largest net increase in production in the shortest span of time. Between 2005 and 2020, the US has MORE THAN TRIPLED it's oil production. However, shale oil requires prices of over 40-50$ a barrel to be economical.
https://in.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-shale-costs-analysis/few-u-s-shale-firms-can-withstand-prolonged-oil-price-war-idINKBN2130HL
Once the shale producers are destroyed we will once again be at the mercy of OPEC and the Arabs.
Have we seen such an oil price war before?
Yes. In the late 1980s, late 90s and between 2014-2016. Each time Saudi blinked and reduced oil production to shore up prices.
https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/articles/why-saudi-arabia-s-oil-price-war-is-doomed-to-fail-fuel-for-thought
Do countries use hedges to hedge their oil supply?
Sort of. While typical consumers who hedge are usually airlines. Suppliers often hedge as well. Mexico (which is a large oil exporter) annually hedges almost all of it's production in what is called a 'Hacienda Hedge'. This year's hedge has saved the Mexican Economy
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Mexicos-Oil-Hedge-Just-Saved-Its-Economy.html

When is it a right time to hedge?
This one is tricky. The ideal time to hedge is when oil prices are near their bottom.
Just like there is talk of 'flattening the curve' with Covid, for traded commodities the best time to hedge is the 'bottom of the curve'
This chart shows the price of 1 barrel of Brent Crude oil up to 80 months into the future. That's almost 5 years!
https://www.erce.energy/graph/brent-futures-curve
The price of oil 5 years from now is shown to be currently at 54 dollars a barrel. That is much lower than what we were paying just last year in September when Saudi oil facilities were attacked.
What are the risks?
The risks are mainly three fold.

  1. Hedges work essentially by storing cheap oil today and having it delivered at a later date. As India is a large oil importer, any attempt to hedge oil consumption will immediately cause oil prices to rise. Therefore, while it may not be possible to hedge all of India's oil consumption, it is certainly possible to hedge a significant part of it.
  2. India will not be able to take advantage of lower oil prices if prices CONTINUE to stay low. However, past history shows this is unlikely.
  3. Indian Oil PSUs also export large amounts of their products overseas due to surplus refining capacity. However, if oil prices continue to be low, the relative cost of their products increases and export become uneconomical.
submitted by redindian_92 to india [link] [comments]

How to deal with unequal length time series data

I have been reading research papers on financial time series prediction where the researchers use neural networks to forecast the closing price of some stock by using time series of various other securities as input features in the neural network.
For different types of securities, the financial time series can easily differ in length due to the number of trading days each security has. For example, crude oil (CL: WTI) as a commodity trades on a 5-day window (Monday-Friday), whereas FOREX trades on a 7-day window (Monday-Sunday).
Given that this unevenness in the trading days can lead to the input features being unequal in length and series having trading information for days other series cannot incorporate, how does one deal with such a problem, given that:
  1. The simple feed-forward neural network takes in equal-sized input vectors
  2. Sequential models such as RNN/LSTM can take advantage of padding but at the trade-off of disrupting the original time-series
submitted by clutchking_asiimov to learnmachinelearning [link] [comments]

Rupee gains marginally as crude slips

Rupee gains marginally as crude slips
In early deals today, the rupee traded at 71.38 a dollar, up 0.10% from Monday’s close of 71.44
Asian currencies were trading lower

https://preview.redd.it/nefagk4ucgd41.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=761f8ada6aedc97ca9b9b6d2a81f384fb4a70328
The Indian rupee on Tuesday strengthened marginally against the US dollar after international crude oil prices fell on demand worries.
In early deals today, the rupee traded at 71.38 a dollar, up 0.10% from Monday’s close of 71.44. The Indian unit had opened at 71.38 a dollar.
Brent crude slipped on concerns that demand will be hit as the novel coronavirus spread rapidly in China and other countries. Global stocks and currencies also fell on concerns over the spread of the new virus. China on Tuesday reported a further increase in both the death toll and number of infected people from the virus. The director-general of the World Health Organization is visiting Beijing to assess China’s response to the disease as the death toll topped 100 and the number of cases soared overnight.
Traders also focus on the US Federal Reserve meeting due today and tomorrow where it is expected to keep rates unchanged. Traders will also eye the Union Budget on 1 February for cues on fiscal deficit and government borrowing targets. Analysts expect the government may widen fiscal deficit for the current fiscal to 3.7% from 3.3% projected. The government may keep deficit target at 3.5% for next year.
“All of this shall keep the rupee on upward bias but quantum of move shall remain low as people wait for budget before taking long bets. The further course of the pair shall be clearer after the Budget announcement as the markets will react differently to the various measures which shall be announced by the Government,” said CR Forex Advisors in a note to its investors
The yield on the 10-year government bond was at 6.553% compared with its previous close of 6.556%. Bond yield and prices moves in opposite directions. The benchmark Sensex was at 41,150.72, down marginally. Year to date, the index has lost 0.24%.
Year to date, the rupee has strengthened 0.06%, while foreign investors have bought nearly $2.23 billion in Indian equities and sold $1.44 billion in debt.
Asian currencies were trading lower. Malaysian ringgit was down 0.62%, Thai Baht 0.26%, Indonesian rupiah 0.25%, Taiwan dollar 0.25%, Japanese yen 0.07%. China renminbi was up 0.46% and China Offshore 0.11%.
The dollar index, which measures the US currency’s strength against a basket of major currencies, was at 97.948, down 0.01% from its previous close of 97.956.
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submitted by idealstockinvestment to u/idealstockinvestment [link] [comments]

Crude Oil Prices Weaken on Barry Downgrade, Eye EIA Drilling Data

https://ift.tt/eA8V8J Crude oil prices weakened as tropical storm Barry weakened. They may fall further if EIA data tracking US drilling productivity stokes oversupply fears.
* More Details Here
submitted by Gdog1243 to aboutForex [link] [comments]

New rule! Also are cryptocurrencies an investment, will there be a crash? Everything answered here!

This is going to be the only crypto post for now and an announcement:
Rule 6: Bitcoins & cryptocurrenies should be discussed in CryptoCurrency. Posts regarding this topic will be automatically removed.
If there's a stock correlated with cryptocurrencies, like coinbase going IPO, then that's fine, you might have to message the mods after posting to have it approved, no big deal.
Also if you're questioning whether something is an investment or not, just search for it on personalfinance. For general currency trading strategies, see forex .
If you're wondering if bitcoins are an investment or if there will be a crash, read on.

Are cryptocurrencies an investment?

This post is going to deal with bitcoins & cryptocurrencies as an investment... they're more speculative. All currencies are speculative mostly due to how the forex market works, but more because of exchange rates between countries keep currencies balanced (including inflation, country debt, interest rates, political & economic stability, etc), so you can only profit in price fluctuations.
Sure you could buy the currency of a depressed country, like Mexico decades ago, and then hold in the hopes it'll go up (which it did for Mexico), but that's also speculation (no one knew Mexico would pay off so much debt).
Bitcoins are also affected by other countries' currency values, but more so by the future expectation of legitimacy, world wide adoption, limited gains from mining, and eventual limit in supply. But at any given moment the United States could pay off more debt, raise interest rates to reduce inflation (or cause deflation), grow GDP, or even reduce the supply of USD all of which would increase the value of USD (keep in mind bitcoins can't do any of these things).
Far too many people are treating cryptocoins as an investment because currently (June 5th 2017) a lot of crypto investors are worth a lot of money, god bless you people, so this post will also help you determine if we're headed for a crypto crash and maybe you can keep those profits.

Should I invest in cryptocurrencies?

Understand that an investment is something you hope will go up in the future or provide income, both of which for the long term vs speculation which profits on short term inefficiencies.
Speculative securities are typically commodities, options, bonds, and currencies, but also stocks that are volatile enough to give you extreme returns or extreme loses.

Examples of investments:

Examples of speculation:

Reducing the risk of speculation

Typically for speculation you reduce risk by reducing your trade size and timeframe, but since you're trying to invest into something that is speculative, you can try:
Asset allocation, a strategy that reduces risk.. If you're 80% stocks, 15% bonds, 4% gold, and 1% bitcoins, if something were to happen to bitcoins, you still have 99% of your money.
But even very aggressive long term portfolios leave speculation out completely and just go 100% stocks because stocks benefit from growth while speculative securities like gold benefit from global turmoil in the short term. Only mid risk & mid term portfolios can take advantage of gold's speculative returns.
I also mention asset allocation because many crypto investors have been using this strategy on a portfolio of 100% crypto coins, but that doesn't help you reduce the overall risk of crypto coins, you're just reducing the risk of 1 speculative asset with another speculative asset. 100% crypto portfolio would face the same risks such as being made illegal, IRS aggressively hunting down crypto profits, a drop in correlated coin markets, or just a loss of popularity would all cause a sell off. Even the USD or Chinese currencies becoming more valuable would reduce the value of crypto coins.

Should I buy coins right now?

Cryptocoins are a better investment after a period of consolidation when volatility has stabilized:

Bitcoin 2013/2014 speculation, chart

Bitcoin 2015 consolidation, chart

Source Bitstamp exchange, while the volume is #2 to GDAX, Bitstamp is better to look at for historical price/data, more charts here.

RSI & MACD key for above charts and primer

Analyzing overbought signals

So the first chart above have RSI & MACD screaming that bitcoin is overbought and you shouldn't invest in 2013/2014.
The black squares in the 2nd chart show consolidation and reduced volatility, a "better" time to invest. If you were trading short term, it would be a whole different story, and there would be opportunities to buy & short, but since this is written for investing, the small overbought signals are ignored, so if you were to buy Bitcoin at $300 inside the first blacksquare (2nd chart) and then it suddenly drops to 25%, it's okay because the volatility is much lower compared to previous price movements (nothing compared to 80% loss in the 1st chart). Any investor would tell you a 25% drop is terrible, but bitcoins are speculative and that kind of drop is pretty damn good for this level of volatility.

Nothing goes straight up forever

and anything that comes near this vertical incline will eventually lose 80% to near 100%, always happens, it's usually preceded by emotions (price euphoria), attention, and increased volume, all classic signs that something is becoming riskier.
Other speculative securities gaining multiples and then losing 80% to near 100% of value:

Notable comments on reddit:

*This is just to get you guys looking at different subs on this topic, and yeah it's mostly anti-crypto, but don't let that discourage you.

Is Bitcoin going to crash?

Maybe, the signals are getting louder, you tell me: The only chart you wanted to see this entire time.
So based on the above chart, is bitcoin overbought? MACD levels are the same as 2013's crash, but the increased in value is around 4.3x or 2.4x (depending on which you look at), so maybe we'll see another spike before a crash, I don't know, it's up to interpretation right now. There's the emotional price levels of 3000 and 4000 that we might have no problem getting to in an overbought environment before a correction. And how big will the correction be? I think 80%, but it very well could be around 50% down to $1200, the previous level of resistance which would become support.
I put everything above in its own wiki here.
Well I hope that helps everyone. Sorry to anyone that may feel butthurt on classifying cryptocoins as speculation, I hope you understand the facts. Feel free to argue or agree with this. If I made any mistakes and you point them out, I'll correct them and give you credit for it in an update to this post and the wiki.
Also the automod will is just going to blanket remove posts (not comments) with the following keywords {crypto, bitcoin, btc, etherium, altcoin} (see update 4 below) (this will eventually get relaxed if Coinbase ever IPOs) and then it'll send the user this message:
"Sorry your post[link] was removed in stocks because of rule 6: Bitcoins & cryptocurrenies should be discussed in CryptoCurrency. You can find more information in our are-cryptocurrencies-investments wiki. If you're trying to discuss a non-OTC stock related to cryptocoins like Coinbase IPO, or this was just a mistake, message the mods and they'll approve your post, thanks."
Update: Created wiki, added relevant websites and sub reddits. Also turned on automod reply.
Update2: those relavant websites and subreddits I put into the wiki, thanks u/dross99 for recommending ethereum

Relevant websites/wikis

Relevant subreddits

  • CryptoCurrency - main sub to learn about all bit & altcoins
  • ethtrader - trading eth
  • ethereum - for more eth information
  • btc - the place to have bitcoin discussions or r/CryptoCurrency; while Bitcoin does have a lot of information on Bitcoins in general, you'll find many reddit subs completely opposed to Bitcoin for heavy censorship of discussions, especially those critical of bitcoins, so you're better off reading the sub's wikis and discussing bitcoins in btc & r/CryptoCurrency
  • personalfinance
Update3: Shoutout to the mods on CryptoCurrency
Update4: Updated auto mod keywords, it's not a blanket catch all, a little completed to understand if you don't know regex but it looks like this
"crypto ?(trading|investing)","(should(| I)|could(| I)|can(| I)|how to|is it worth) (buy|sell|mine|min)(|ing) (btc|btcs|bitcoin|ether|etherium|eth|litecoin|ripple|altcoin)" 
submitted by provoko to stocks [link] [comments]

Crude Oil Prices May Oscillate Between Iran Risks, China GDP

https://ift.tt/eA8V8J Crude oil prices may find themselves oscillating between political risk in Iran and weak economic data, which might create selling pressure in the cycle-linked commodity.
* More Details Here
submitted by Gdog1243 to aboutForex [link] [comments]

What Causes Volatility in The Canadian Dollar rate?

Just like the seasons, the currency exchange and stock market are the most unpredictable ones in behaviour. You can at least assume and anticipate the rates, the fall and the rise. They are the most unpredictable thing by nature you can ever come across.
There's only so much that one can do with them. You can make forecasts based on the present situation, however, the uncertainty of them coming true is as less and weak as a hair. Well, enough philosophical, isn't it?
Worry not! The discussion about economies can never begin without touching those lines of philosophy. In conclusion-- the economic stature of any currency depends on so many factors that listing them is a big thing.
However, when discussing currencies, one can't ignore some of the most influential and strong currencies... one amongst them that has been maintaining its stance forever since is the Canadian Dollar.
The Saga
Talking about the Canadian Dollar Rate, it should be known that it is the seventh-most traded currency on the Forex market in the world, one can only think that how many institutions and individuals might be trading in CAD.
The Canadian Dollar is also referred to as the Loonie, buck, Huard, and Piastre (in French), it is said to be held as a reserve currency by some central banks for economic purposes. Seeing its popularity, CAD has also come to be known as a commodity currency, due to Canadas’s substantial raw material exports.
It has been ages since the Canadian Dollar is at power with a cumulative market share that’s valued near US$119 billion. The Canadian dollar is a representation of a substantial valuation of the overall world currency markets, and it typically does not experience frequent extremes in pricing volatility as do smaller currencies.
However, there are still periods of time where the inherent volatility that faces any currency may bring perceived stability into question. Further, the situations have brought a change in the mentality of people and their perceiving ability of Canadian Dollar.
The constant fluctuations of the Canadian Dollar rates have brought the traders to a worrisome state. Here are a few reasons behind the constant fluctuations and tumultuous position of the currency. These conditions are based on the historical parameters of the currency since its inception to gaining of the value etc. etc.
Existence as ‘The Floating Currency’
Yes, the Canadian dollar is considered, taken and reserved as a "floating currency" thus, deriving its value from the market that’s open where traders and economically strong people choose the position of the currency. Since its inception, the Canadian government has never dictated about the exact "peg" value of it to any other currency; the CAD pricing performs on the decision of the global currency markets participants, thus, making it as a constantly evolving currency. It is not uncommon for the Canadian dollar's value to fluctuate 5-10% in a single trading session.
The Dependency Factors
Yes, the Canadian dollar's dependency on the pricing hikes and lows of a commodity suggests that the relationship of the international market and their increase and decrease in demand can shuffle the status of CAD distinctly. One such commodity is the pricing of crude oil. For instance, the decline in crude oil price in the international market for the year 2014 to 2015 witnessed the inflation in the overall Canadian economy that was greatly affected.
How to find out the actual rate of the Canadian Dollar?
There are many ways to find out the rates for the Canadian Dollar, however, the best way to find out the most updated and exact rate of CAD is through Bookmyforex.com. BookMyForex is an RBI recognized online marketplace that offers Foreign exchange-related services. The updated list of currencies and their rates are shown exactly to the last second update. Simply visit the platform and search through our Money Converter to find out the exact value of any currency of your choice.


submitted by bookmyforexgurgaon to u/bookmyforexgurgaon [link] [comments]

Overview of Crude Oil: WTI Continues to Climb on Trade Hopes

https://preview.redd.it/6jwzlswr7c921.png?width=743&format=png&auto=webp&s=650d9a331b450297e7de6bfde965dfea3f0e06dd
US Oil – also known as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Texas Sweet Light – is another type of ‘sweet light’ crude oil, that has a lower sulphur content and density than UK Oil. It is drilled in North America, primarily in Texas, Louisiana and North Dakota, and sent via pipeline to Cushing, Oklahoma for price settlement. As this is a landlocked area, most WTI oil is consumed in the US, making this the primary benchmark for the US market.
According to the analysis, USOil.x pair is expected to find support at 48.95, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 47.89. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 50.60, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 51.89.
USOil.x previous day range was 16500 and current day range is 9000.
· US-China trade talks continue, and markets continue to bid up on hopes of progress.
· Commodities are catching a relief run on hopes of improving trade, after a tense ending to 2018.
Crude energies markets are continuing to spin higher as investors hope for peaceful trade talks to resolve between the US and China, which are at present underway at the vice-ministerial level, extending into a third day of talks with traders awaiting announcements following the trade meetings. Trade tensions between the US and China have spun out broader market sentiment in recent months, and investors are looking for any signs of a recovery in global trade in order to offset the increasing signs of economic slowdown across the planet for 2019.
The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Crude Oil Stocks Change Indicator is published weekly. It measures the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US companies. It is one of the indicators affecting world oil prices.
Growing crude oil stocks indicate a weaker demand for oil and can have a negative impact on the oil barrel price.
submitted by xtreamforex26 to CrudeOil [link] [comments]

Trading Beginners Guide- How to do trading?

Trading is done to build wealth. Buying and selling of shares are called trading. We buy shares with the expectation that the shares of a particular company will go up. And generally sell shares when we get our desired price or sometimes we need to close the position in losses too. Our earning and loss will be based on the price of buying and selling of shares.
The trader will earn a profit or will be in losses will depend on the price moment of the particular company’s share he or she is trading in. The shares price moment will be according to the performance of the company.
There are some Terms in trading.
Intraday- when the purchasing and selling of a security are made on the same day.
Delivery- When securities are purchased and kept on hold for a longer time.
Brokerage- it is kind of fee which is paid to the broker on the volume of the security purchased and sold brokerage of delivery and intraday rates vary.
Short selling- Selling of shares and buy it later for making a profit.
Stop Loss- its used to minimize loss.
Best Forex Signals Provider-There are many companies who are into providing signals in various markets like forex, comex, and stocks. By subscribing to their services you can trade in the market.
We can deal in shares, commodity, forex, indices in the same manner. We have described above. Trading is generally done 22 days in the month as the market is closed on Saturday and Sunday. Securities are kept in a demat account and traded with the trading account.
In commodities, we deal in various commodities metals, precious metals. Natural gas, crude oil, and agriculture commodities too
And in currency, We have so many currencies in which we trade like GBP, JPY, USD, and much more currency.
In intraday trading, we see and observe trends in delivery basis trading we see fundamentals.
In the market, we have so many factors which affect price fluctuations in the market.
Trading at the various market is extremely easy. It needs time and dedication and the right approach. There are many techniques and strategies are available which are helpful in profit making in the market like fundamentals, technicals any of these or both techniques can be used depends on the approach and goal.
Importance of Research Companies
Some traders trade by their own but it is very risky and time-consuming process because having market knowledge and keeping a constant eye on the market is very difficult for a trader or sometimes traders trade on some assumptions which may leave them in loses.
And another way to avail services of research companies their companies provide signals by conducting great research on market trends and relevant news. Such companies provide signals to investors or traders at a very low price. In the market, there are so many companies available who provides trading but there it is very relevant to choose a company who provides genuine trading signals.
submitted by ashleyjhon892 to u/ashleyjhon892 [link] [comments]

Your PM US Stocks and a whole lot more news that you need to read: US stocks close lower, pare earlier losses on Brexit progress

US Markets End of Day Snapshot


Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor rating and financials data.

US Treasuries


Currencies


Commodities


submitted by QuantalyticsResearch to stocks [link] [comments]

Important Guide About Oil Trading

One of the best commodities to trade in the market is the crude oil. It belongs to a very active market and it is popular among traders and investors. News about this commodity is abundant and it causes the oil price movements every day. Thus, it showcases many trading opportunities for day-traders and long-term traders alike.
It is a valuable commodity and it has marked its importance to mankind. This commodity is the main asset of many global industries. It is a major source of energy. It generates electricity, provides power for transportation, and allows factories to function. Therefore, oil price movements can affect many other assets such as bonds, currencies (forex), stocks, and in special cases even other commodities.
Developed industrial countries are the biggest consumers of this commodity. China, Japan, Germany, U.S., and the UK are one of the largest consumers. Its price is determined by supply and demand factors. When demand increases, its price will also increase. While a decrease in demand will also decrease its price. Thus, it is important to pay attention to these big oil-consuming nations, regardless of the commodity’s demand status.
Traders should be aware of various reports when they trade this commodity. The first one is the weekly oil inventory of America’s Department of Energy (DOE). This report presents the supply that is available for the market. Whenever the supply is high it implies that there is less demand in the previous week, making the price to fall. When the supply is low, it implies that demand is high which results in a higher price.
The second one is the annual report of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). This report presents the production of each representing countries. It checks how much supply is going to be produced for the world market. OPEC’s production will depend on the status of the world’s supply and demand. For example, if supply is low then OPEC will increase in production, resulting in low price. Traders must know of the influence the OPEC has in deciding the oil price.
Another component traders should pay attention to is the U.S. dollar. This currency is used for pricing oil. This commodity and the U.S. dollar has an inverse relationship. A lower price of the dollar means a high oil price and a lower price in oil means a high price of a dollar.
Crude oil is a special asset it requires exceptional skills to make a profit out of it. Newbies who are looking to trade this commodity must learn what moves it, its crowd, its history, and different physical variations. Trade oil with us, here in Millennium-FX.
Read More: https://blog.mlnfx.com/important-guide-oil-trading/
submitted by FinanceTrading to u/FinanceTrading [link] [comments]

How to calculate the margin and pip value of CFDs (such as Stock Index), specially, Oanda CFD?

Hi all,
To extend my vision, I start studying CFDs, such as Stock Index, Oil, Commodity, etc. Unlike Forex, I don't understand how margin and pip value is calculated for Stock Index and other CFDs.
I tested with Oanda CFD, seems the margin for 1 unit UK 100 is about $10000, and 1 unit Brent Crude Oil is about $50. Seems the margin for BCO is just the price of the oil, but how about the Stock Index, what's the price?
Thanks
EDIT: the margin I talked above is the total money required, not leveraged. And the leverage provided by Oanda is 50. So the leveraged margin for 1 unit BCO is only $1.
EDIT2: Though on Oanda forum nobody answered my question about what the multipliers are, eventually I realized for fxTrade the multipliers are just 1, but different conttacts are quoted in different currency. FTSE is quoted in GBP, so 1 contract value is 7000 GBP, which is about 10000 USD, which is exactly how I observed. And the pip value is always 1 quote currentcy. For FTSE, the pip value is 1 GBP, which is about 1.5 USD.
submitted by wqking to Forex [link] [comments]

Oil prices spike 6% after bullish Russian energy minister comments

This is an automatic summary, original reduced by 56%.
Investing.com - Oil prices spiked 6% to approach the $36-level in North America trade on Thursday, after comments made by Russia's energy minister fueled speculation of possible joint action with OPEC producers to cut output and alleviate a global supply glut.
Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said Saudi Arabia proposed to cut oil production by each country by up to 5%, sparking a sharp rally in prices.
Global crude production is outpacing demand following a boom in U.S. shale oil and after a decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries last year not to cut production in order to defend market share.
Oversupply issue will be exacerbated further as Iran returns to the global oil market after western-imposed sanctions were lifted earlier this month.
U.S. oil futures plunged below $27 last week for the first time since September 2003, as ongoing concerns over a global supply glut and slowing demand dragged down prices.
All CFDs and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes.
Summary Source | FAQ | Theory | Feedback | Top five keywords: price#1 market#2 Oil#3 supply#4 global#5
NOTICE: This thread is for discussing the submission topic only. Do not discuss the concept of the autotldr bot here.
submitted by autotldr to autotldr [link] [comments]

Oil down 3 percent on surprise U.S. crude build

This is an automatic summary, original reduced by 67%.
NEW YORK - Crude prices fell 3 percent on Wednesday, with sliding toward 11-year lows, after an unusual build in U.S. stockpiles and signs Saudi Arabia will keep adding to the global oil glut.
"This week's EIA data is just another bearish data point in a series of many that have dominated 2015 and will likely continue to do so heading into 2016.".
Crude prices did not lose much after their initial decline on the data, with some traders citing thin volume.
After settling higher on Tuesday, prices retraced some gains after the industry group American Petroleum Institute said its numbers showed a surprise build.
Crude prices have plunged two-thirds since mid-2014 as soaring output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and the United States created a global surplus of between half a million and 2 million barrels per day.
All CFDs and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes.
Summary Source | FAQ | Theory | Feedback | Top five keywords: price#1 Crude#2 data#3 trader#4 NEW#5
NOTICE: This thread is for discussing the submission topic only. Do not discuss the concept of the autotldr bot here.
submitted by autotldr to autotldr [link] [comments]

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WTI Crude Oil Forecast April 13, 2020

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